Adrian Pagan

Emeritus Professor

School of Economics
H04 - Merewether Building
The University of Sydney
NSW 2006 Australia

Adrian Pagan is an Emeritus Professor of Econometrics in the School of Economics at the University of Sydney. He has published many papers in the area of theoretical and applied econometrics. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, the Econometric Society and the Journal of Econometrics; a Medallist Fellow of the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand; has been made a Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia and was awarded a Centenary Medal at the Centennial of Australian Federation.

He has held visiting and permanent appointments at a number of universities around the world including the Oxford University, the University of Rochester, Princeton University, Yale University, Johns Hopkins University and the University of California at Los Angeles. His interests are in macro-econometric modelling and their uses in policy analysis and for the explanation of business cycles.

For Adrian Pagan's CV, click here

Selected Publications


Kulish, M. and Pagan, A., Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32:2, March 2017, pp. 255-274.


Pagan, A. and Wilcox, D. External Review- Reserve Bank of Australia Group Forecasts and Analysis

Kulish, M. and Pagan, A.R Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change, Econometric Reviews, vol 35, issue 7, 2016, pp. 1251-1270.

Fisher, L., Huh, H. and Pagan, A.R. Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems with a Mixture of I(1) and I(0) Variables, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31:5, August 2016, pp.892-911.

Ouliaris, S. and Pagan, A. A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 78:5, October 2016, pp. 605-622.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A. The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance, Princeton University Press, USA, 2016.


Pagan, A. and Robinson, T. (2014), Methods for Assessing the Impact of Financial Effects on Business Cycles in Macroeconometric Models, Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 94-106


L. Maccini and A.R. Pagan “Inventories, Fluctuations and Goods Sector Cycles”, Macro-economic Dynamics, vol 17:1, 89-122.


Journal Articles

D. Harding and A.R. Pagan 2011 “An Econometric Analysis of Some Models of Constructed Binary Random Variables”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 29,86-95.

T. M. Christensen, A.S. Hurn and A.R. Pagan 2011 “Detecting Common Dynamics in Transitory Components”, Journal of Time Series Econometrics, Vol 3/1, Paper 3.

R. Fry and A.R. Pagan 2011 ”Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review”, Journal of Economic Literature, 2011, 49, 938-960.

Pagan, A. and T. Robinson 2011 “Exploring the Linkages Between Financial Stress and Business Cycles”, Reserve Bank of Australia Discussion Paper 2011/04 available at


Book Chapters

M. Fukacs and A. Pagan 2010 “Structural Macro-economic Modelling in a Policy Environment”, D. Giles and A. Ullah (eds), Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance , Routledge

L. Catao and A. Pagan 2010 “The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach” L.F. Cespedes, R. Chang and D. Saravia (eds) Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence (Central Bank of Chile)

Journal Articles

M. Fukac and A.R. Pagan 2010 “Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 55-70


Book Chapters

A.R. Pagan 2009 “Comments on ‘Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts’ by J.H. Stock and M. W. Watson “, in J. Fuhrer, Y.K. Kodrzycki, J.S. Little and G. P. Olivei (eds) Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Perspective (MIT Press), 187-193

Journal Articles

M. Dungey and A. R Pagan 2009 “Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy”, Economic Record, 85, 1-20.


Book Chapters

D. Harding and A.R. Pagan 2008 "Business Cycle Measurement." in S.N. Durlauf and L.E. Blume (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (2nd Edition), Palgrave Macmillan (available at The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online)

A.R. Pagan 2008 “A.W. Phillips”, International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences

Journal Articles

A.R. Pagan and M.H. Pesaran 2008 “Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 3376-3395.


Journal Articles

G. Kapetanios, A.R. Pagan and A. Scott 2007 “Making a Match: Combining Theory and Evidence in Policy-oriented Macroeconomic Modeling”, Journal of Econometrics, 136, 505-594.

Martin Fuka─Ź and Adrian R. Pagan 2007 “Commentary on ‘An Estimated DSGE Model for the United Kingdom", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, Vol 89, #4, 233-240


Journal Articles

D. Harding and A. R. Pagan 2006 “Synchronization of Cycles”, Journal of Econometrics, 132, 59-79


Journal Articles

D. Harding and A,R. Pagan 2005 “A Suggested Framework for Classifying the Modes of Cycle Research, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 151-159.

A.R. Pagan 2005 “Addendum to report on Modelling and Forecasting at the Bank of England”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Summer 2005, 190-193

J. Engel, D, Haugh and A. Pagan 2005 “Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-Linear Models in Business Cycles”, International Journal of Forecasting 21, 651-662.