Rising fuel costs could see some Australians swap cars for public transport, work from home more often, and miss out on social connection and health appointments, according to new research from the University of Sydney Business School.

Researchers from the School’s Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies surveyed 808 Queensland residents on how their weekly travel would change if petrol prices reached $2.50, $3 and $3.50 per litre.

The results pointed to three clear outcomes: people would drive less, use public transport more and cut out some trips altogether. The last outcome is of most concern to the research team.

“Petrol is one of the few household costs people encounter constantly and directly, meaning price increases are immediate and difficult to ignore,” said lead researcher Dr Andrea Pellegrini.

“Transport is not simply another household expense. It allows people to access work, education, healthcare, shopping, family commitments and social activities. Higher petrol prices affect people’s ability to participate in everyday life.

“Public transport becomes more attractive as prices rise, but the reality is many private trips cannot be easily replaced, especially for people in outer suburban and regional areas. It quickly reaches a point where people need to decide which trips they can sacrifice.”

The research team, which also included Professor Matthew Beck and Professor John Rose, found avoided trips increased sharply as fuel prices rose: by 90% at $2.50/L, almost 190% at $3/L, and more than 270% at $3.50/L.

Travel for education was the only type unaffected. Private car use was forecast to drop by 12.2 percent for commuting, 13.8 percent for grocery shopping, and up to 28.8 percent for social engagements.

With the state of the Strait of Hormuz fluctuating daily amid ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, and Australia’s temporary halving of the fuel excise due to taper off over July and August, petrol prices could soon reach a tipping point for households.

While the fuel crisis appears to have increased the popularity of electric vehicles, the researchers said steep upfront costs are a significant adoption barrier for households most impacted by rising costs.

“If people stop travelling because they can no longer afford their usual activities, the issue is not just transport. It is about access, equity and social participation,” Dr Pellegrini said.

“Responses to rising fuel prices need to go beyond simply telling people to drive less. Alternatives need to be realistic, including reliable public transport, support for flexible work, and a fair and affordable transition to electric vehicles.”