The precarious city: the suburban settlement in an age of uncertainty

Australia’s postwar model of social citizenship was centred on stable employment, high wages and home ownership. This ‘social settlment’ underpinned the expansion of the nation’s system of urban settlements in this period with the resulting ‘suburban settlement’ reflecting the unique social and economic compromise that made Australia a relatively egalitarian nation during the twentieth century.

However, the ‘great unsettling’ of the last thirty years has seen Australia’s suburban settlement rapidly crumbling. The suburbs are now increasingly associated with areas of disadvantage while the inner city has gentrified. During this time, Australia has witnessed an historically significant generational change in housing opportunities. For example, home ownership among 25 to 34 year olds has declined from over 60% in 1981 to 45% in 2016. Ownership rates for this cohort in the bottom income quintile falling from 60% to a little over 20% over this period.

In parallel with changes to housing outcomes, structural changes in labour markets reflecting changing policy goals and global economic imperatives have led to the increasing prevalence of ‘precarious’ or insecure and casual employment, especially in younger cohorts, both in Australia and internationally. Non-standard employment’ now accounts for nearly half of all jobs and with a bigger impact on women and the young. Insecurity and low wage inflation has resulted in wages declining in real terms, especially for younger cohorts compared to earlier generations.

This project will investigate the disintegration of two interrelated pillars of Australia’s post-war ‘suburban settlement’ – home ownership and income security – and the consequences of this for patterns of urban change. Drawing on the concept of social citizenship, the project will explore the implications of this process through the life trajectories of 25- to 40-year-olds. The research will generate new knowledge by extending our understanding of how structural changes in employment opportunities are disrupting established patterns of housing demand for this group. The knowledge generated will inform policymakers and wider debates on the longer-term implications of the breakdown of home ownership on the Australian model of citizenship.

• Laurence Troy - Senior Lecturer in Urbanism
• Bill Randolph - Professor, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW

This project has been funded by: Australian Research Council (ARC) DECRA (DE) 2020. Grant ID: DP210102002