Outline

Overview

Climate change is reshaping our world, bringing increasingly frequent extreme weather events and far-reaching socio-economic disruptions. This unit dives into the heart of these multifaceted impacts of climate change, exploring how rising temperatures, extreme heat events, intensifying storms, prolonged droughts, shifting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and ecosystem disruptions are altering human and natural systems worldwide, and could lead to food shortages, water scarcity, infrastructure damage, biodiversity loss, public health crises, economic instability, and increased conflict and displacement. Drawing on findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports to contextualize the range of possible future scenarios, students will critically examine concepts of risk and uncertainty, gaining insights into potential climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, and their implications for global climate patterns and economic stability. A core component of the unit is the analysis of economic and systemic consequences, incorporating insights from recent research into the global costs of climate change. Through case studies, students will assess varying estimates of economic losses, reconciling differences between methodologies and assumptions. Topics include the amplification of economic costs through global supply chains and the long-term economic commitments imposed by climate change. Another focal area of the unit is the human dimension, examining how severe climate events influence individual and collective behaviours, from cognitive biases and misinformation to societal conflict. Students will develop skills in advanced analytical techniques, including input-output disaster analysis, Integrated Assessment Models, and Agent-Based Models, to effectively evaluate disruptions and resilience in economic systems. By the end of this unit, students will have developed a comprehensive understanding of climate-related risks and uncertainties, gained exposure to leading-edge research, and acquired analytical tools to assess the economic and social consequences of climate change, preparing them for further research- or policy-oriented careers in climate science.

Unit details and rules

Academic unit	Physics Academic Operations
Credit points	6
Prerequisites ?	None
Corequisites ?	None
Prohibitions ?	None
Assumed knowledge ?	None
Available to study abroad and exchange students	No

Teaching staff

Coordinator	Manfred Lenzen, manfred.lenzen@sydney.edu.au
Guest lecturer(s)	Fabian Sack, fabian.sack@sydney.edu.au
Lecturer(s)	Mengyu Li, mengyu.li@sydney.edu.au
	Manfred Lenzen, manfred.lenzen@sydney.edu.au
	Liyuan Wei, liyuan.wei@sydney.edu.au

Assessment

The census date for this unit availability is 1 September 2025

Details
Criteria

Type	Description	Weight	Due	Length	Use of AI
Presentation	Five-minute presentation of the selected resilience case study A five-minute presentation of the selected resilience case study, incorporating multimedia elements (e.g., visuals, graphs, videos).	20%	Multiple weeks Closing date: 24 Sep 2025	5 min	AI allowed
Outcomes assessed:
Presentation	Group presentation Students presenting a cohesive policy strategy	25%	Multiple weeks Closing date: 17 Nov 2025	~10-15 minutes	AI allowed
Outcomes assessed:
Case studies	Individual resilience case study rationale Resilience case study rationale, explaining why the selected case is significant. Choice is from 9 resilience options.	15%	Week 06 Due date: 14 Sep 2025 at 23:59 Closing date: 24 Sep 2025	one-page each	AI allowed
Outcomes assessed:
Written work	Individual Resilience Policy Expansion Individual Resilience Policy Expansion: refining case studies using group insights	25%	Week 13 Due date: 07 Nov 2025 at 23:59 Closing date: 17 Nov 2025	4-5 pages each	AI allowed
Outcomes assessed:
Written work	Joint Summary Section Synthesising individual analyses into a unified policy vision	15%	Week 13 Due date: 07 Nov 2025 at 23:59 Closing date: 17 Nov 2025	1-2 pages	AI allowed
Outcomes assessed:
= group assignment ?

Assessment summary

Assignment 1: This assignment introduces students to climate resilience strategies and requires students to identify a relevant case study (1 page report + 5 min presentation)—due date: 14 September 2025.
Assignment 2: This assignment requires students to submit a collaborative policy and implementation plan (4-5 page individual report + 1-2 page group report + 10~15 min group presentation)—due date: 7 November 2025.

Assessment criteria

The University awards common result grades, set out in the Coursework Policy 2014 (Schedule 1).

As a general guide, a high distinction indicates work of an exceptional standard, a distinction a very high standard, a credit a good standard, and a pass an acceptable standard.

Result name	Mark range	Description
High distinction	85 - 100
Distinction	75 - 84
Credit	65 - 74
Pass	50 - 64
Fail	0 - 49	When you don’t meet the learning outcomes of the unit to a satisfactory standard.

For more information see sydney.edu.au/students/guide-to-grades.

For more information see guide to grades.

Use of generative artificial intelligence (AI)

You can use generative AI tools for open assessments. Restrictions on AI use apply to secure, supervised assessments used to confirm if students have met specific learning outcomes.

Refer to the assessment table above to see if AI is allowed, for assessments in this unit and check Canvas for full instructions on assessment tasks and AI use.

If you use AI, you must always acknowledge it. Misusing AI may lead to a breach of the Academic Integrity Policy.

Visit the Current Students website for more information on AI in assessments, including details on how to acknowledge its use.

Late submission

In accordance with University policy, these penalties apply when written work is submitted after 11:59pm on the due date:

Deduction of 5% of the maximum mark for each calendar day after the due date.
After ten calendar days late, a mark of zero will be awarded.

Academic integrity

The University expects students to act ethically and honestly and will treat all allegations of academic integrity breaches seriously.

Our website provides information on academic integrity and the resources available to all students. This includes advice on how to avoid common breaches of academic integrity. Ensure that you have completed the Academic Honesty Education Module (AHEM) which is mandatory for all commencing coursework students

Penalties for serious breaches can significantly impact your studies and your career after graduation. It is important that you speak with your unit coordinator if you need help with completing assessments.

Visit the Current Students website for more information on AI in assessments, including details on how to acknowledge its use.

Learning support

Simple extensions

If you encounter a problem submitting your work on time, you may be able to apply for an extension of five calendar days through a simple extension.  The application process will be different depending on the type of assessment and extensions cannot be granted for some assessment types like exams.

Special consideration

If exceptional circumstances mean you can’t complete an assessment, you need consideration for a longer period of time, or if you have essential commitments which impact your performance in an assessment, you may be eligible for special consideration or special arrangements.

Special consideration applications will not be affected by a simple extension application.

Using AI responsibly

Co-created with students, AI in Education includes lots of helpful examples of how students use generative AI tools to support their learning. It explains how generative AI works, the different tools available and how to use them responsibly and productively.

Support for students

The Support for Students Policy reflects the University’s commitment to supporting students in their academic journey and making the University safe for students. It is important that you read and understand this policy so that you are familiar with the range of support services available to you and understand how to engage with them.

The University uses email as its primary source of communication with students who need support under the Support for Students Policy. Make sure you check your University email regularly and respond to any communications received from the University.

Learning resources and detailed information about weekly assessment and learning activities can be accessed via Canvas. It is essential that you visit your unit of study Canvas site to ensure you are up to date with all of your tasks.

If you are having difficulties completing your studies, or are feeling unsure about your progress, we are here to help. You can access the support services offered by the University at any time:

Support and Services (including health and wellbeing services, financial support and learning support)
Course planning and administration
Meet with an Academic Adviser

Weekly schedule

WK	Topic	Learning activity
Week 01	Welcome to the unit: Magnitudes, time scales and uncertainties	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 02	Flood risk assessment under climate change: Analyse the increasing frequency of floods, their economic and social costs, and adaptive measures.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 03	Understand key climate science concepts, model uncertainties, and long-term projections; example with a focus on migration	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 04	The Economics of Climate Change impacts: Assess economic disruptions from climate events, including indirect impacts on supply chains and infrastructure.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 05	Real-world climate disasters and case studies: Review historical climate disasters, their impacts, and lessons learned.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 06	Human responses to climate disasters, cognitive bias, misinformation, miscommunication (social tipping points): Investigate how perception biases and misinformation influence disaster response and policy.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 07	Climate anxiety, psychological and societal dimensions: Examine the emotional burden of climate change, its mental health implications, and strategies for coping and resilience.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 08	Understanding our reactions and emotions towards climate change impacts: Our reactions to images of extreme weather events; what are the differences? Are they cultural, generational, educational, etc? How do we want to engage with the topic? Can we easily talk about how we feel? How do we wish this unit to unfold?	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 09	Public holiday – replacement recorded lecture uploaded online: Physical tipping points: Explore climate tipping points, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse, and their cascading socio-economic effects.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 10	Theories of collapse: Case studies of social collapse	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 11	Climate -> conflict -> climate: Explore the interplay between climate change, resource conflicts, and socio-political instability.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)
Week 12	The Economics of Climate Change impacts - resilience analysis: Explore methods for assessing economic resilience and policies for minimizing systemic risks.	Lecture and tutorial (2 hr)

Study commitment

Typically, there is a minimum expectation of 1.5-2 hours of student effort per week per credit point for units of study offered over a full semester. For a 6 credit point unit, this equates to roughly 120-150 hours of student effort in total.

Required readings

References (guidance being provided during lectures)

Armstrong McKay, D.I. (2024) Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook. Dialogues on Climate Change 1, 30-38.

Armstrong McKay, D.I., A. Staal, J.F. Abrams, R. Winkelmann, B. Sakschewski, S. Loriani, I. Fetzer, S.E. Cornell, J. Rockström and T.M. Lenton (2022) Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, eabn7950.

Block, K., M. Li, J. Gärtner and M. Lenzen (2025) Geopolitical conflict impedes climate change mitigation. npj Climate Action.

Brozović, D. (2023) Societal collapse: A literature review. Futures 145, 103075.

Butzer, K.W. (2012) Collapse, environment, and society. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 3632-3639.

Crutchfield, P. (2022) Societal Collapse and Intergenerational Disparities in Suffering. Neuroethics 15, 27.

Davidson, J.P.L. (2023) Two cheers for collapse? On the uses and abuses of the societal collapse thesis for imagining Anthropocene futures. Environmental Politics 32, 969-987.

Graham, S., M. Wary, F. Calcagni, M. Cisneros, C. de Luca, S. Gorostiza, O. Stedje Hanserud, G. Kallis, P. Kotsila, S. Leipold, J. Malumbres-Olarte, T. Partridge, A. Petit-Boix, A. Schaffartzik, G. Shokry, S. Tirado-Herrero, J. van den Bergh and P. Ziveri (2023) An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points. People and Nature 5, 1445-1456.

Juhola, S., T. Filatova, S. Hochrainer-Stigler, R. Mechler, J. Scheffran and P.-J. Schweizer (2022) Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance. Frontiers in Climate 4.

Kemp, L., C. Xu, J. Depledge, K.L. Ebi, G. Gibbins, T.A. Kohler, J. Rockström, M. Scheffer, H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Steffen and T.M. Lenton (2022) Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 119, e2108146119.

Kopp, R.E., E.A. Gilmore, R.L. Shwom, H. Adams, C. Adler, M. Oppenheimer, A. Patwardhan, C. Russill, D.N. Schmidt and R. York (2025) ‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action. Nature Climate Change15, 29-36.

Lenton, T.M., H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf and H.J. Schellnhuber (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, 1786-1793.

Lenzen, M., A. Malik, S. Kenway, P. Daniels, K.L. Lam and A. Geschke (2018) Economic damage and spill-overs from a tropical cyclone. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2018, 1-28.

Malik, A., M. Li, M. Lenzen, J. Fry, N. Liyanapathirana, K. Beyer, S. Boylan, A. Lee, D. Raubenheimer, A. Geschke and M. Prokopenko (2022) Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia. Nature Food 3, 631-643.

Milkoreit, M., E. Boyd, S.M. Constantino, V.H. Hausner, D.O. Hessen, A. Kääb, D. McLaren, C. Nadeau, K. O'Brien, F.-J. Parmentier, R. Rotbarth, R. Rødven, D. Treichler, E. Wilson-Rowe and Y. Yamineva (2024) Governance for Earth system tipping points – A research agenda. Earth System Governance 21, 100216.

Otto, I.M., J.F. Donges, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R.J. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, M. McCaffrey, S.S.P. Doe, A. Lenferna, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren and H.J. Schellnhuber (2020) Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, 2354-2365.

Peñuelas, J. and S. Nogué (2023) Catastrophic climate change and the collapse of human societies. National Science Review 10.

Pizziol, V. and A. Tavoni (2024) From niches to norms: the promise of social tipping interventions to scale climate action. npj Climate Action 3, 46.

Rahmstorf, S. (2024) Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point? Oceanography.

Ritchie, P.D.L., J.F. Abrams, D.I. Armstrong McKay, P.M. Cox and T.M. Lenton (2023) Tipping points: Both problem and solution. One Earth 6, 1610-1613.

Schulte in den Bäumen, H., J. Többen and M. Lenzen (2015) Labour forced impacts and production losses due to the 2013 flood in Germany. Journal of Hydrology 527, 142-150.

Spaiser, V., S. Juhola, S.M. Constantino, W. Guo, T. Watson, J. Sillmann, A. Craparo, A. Basel, J.T. Bruun, K. Krishnamurthy, J. Scheffran, P. Pinho, U.T. Okpara, J.F. Donges, A. Bhowmik, T. Yasseri, R. Safra de Campos, G.S. Cumming, H. Chenet, F. Krampe, J.F. Abrams, J.G. Dyke, S. Rynders, Y. Aksenov and B.M. Spears (2024) Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization. Earth Syst. Dynam.15, 1179-1206.

Stadelmann-Steffen, I., C. Eder, N. Harring, G. Spilker and A. Katsanidou (2021) A framework for social tipping in climate change mitigation: What we can learn about social tipping dynamics from the chlorofluorocarbons phase-out. Energy Research & Social Science 82, 102307.

Steel, D., G. Belotti, R. Mittiga and K. Mintz-Woo (2024) A Dynamic Collapse Concept for Climate Change. Environmental Values 33, 606-625.

Stocker, T.F., R.G. Jones, M.I. Hegglin, T.M. Lenton, G.C. Hegerl, S.I. Seneviratne, N. van der Wel and R.A. Wood (2024) Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society. Surveys in Geophysics.

Weiss, H. and R. Bradley (2001) What Drives Societal Collapse? sci 291, 609-610.

Winkelmann, R., J.F. Donges, E.K. Smith, M. Milkoreit, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling and T.M. Lenton (2022) Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework. Ecological Economics 192, 107242.

Wunderling, N., A.S. von der Heydt, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C.H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R.M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J.T. Bruun, C.M. Chiessi, H.K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J.F. Donges, S.K.J. Falkena, A.K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N.J. Steinert and M. Willeit (2024) Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth Syst. Dynam. 15, 41-74.

Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes are what students know, understand and are able to do on completion of a unit of study. They are aligned with the University's graduate qualities and are assessed as part of the curriculum.

Outcomes
Graduate qualities

At the completion of this unit, you should be able to:

LO1. Understand the multifaceted impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events, ecosystem disruptions, and socio-economic consequences.
LO2. Analyse the economic costs of climate change, including direct damages and systemic impacts on global supply chains.
LO3. Evaluate climate resilience strategies such as adaptation, supply chain diversification, and resource flexibility.
LO4. Understand advanced analytical methods like input-output disaster analysis, Integrated Assessment Models, and Agent-Based Models to assess economic disruptions.
LO5. Assess the psychological and societal dimensions of climate change, including climate anxiety, misinformation, and cognitive biases.
LO6. Examine the factors driving climate-induced migration and the policy responses to address displacement and conflict.
LO7. Explore the potential for physical and socio-economic tipping points and their implications for global stability.
LO8. Develop communication and research skills to effectively synthesise, present, and debate policy proposals for climate resilience.

Graduate qualities

The graduate qualities are the qualities and skills that all University of Sydney graduates must demonstrate on successful completion of an award course. As a future Sydney graduate, the set of qualities have been designed to equip you for the contemporary world.

GQ1	Depth of disciplinary expertise Deep disciplinary expertise is the ability to integrate and rigorously apply knowledge, understanding and skills of a recognised discipline defined by scholarly activity, as well as familiarity with evolving practice of the discipline.
GQ2	Critical thinking and problem solving Critical thinking and problem solving are the questioning of ideas, evidence and assumptions in order to propose and evaluate hypotheses or alternative arguments before formulating a conclusion or a solution to an identified problem.
GQ3	Oral and written communication Effective communication, in both oral and written form, is the clear exchange of meaning in a manner that is appropriate to audience and context.
GQ4	Information and digital literacy Information and digital literacy is the ability to locate, interpret, evaluate, manage, adapt, integrate, create and convey information using appropriate resources, tools and strategies.
GQ5	Inventiveness Generating novel ideas and solutions.
GQ6	Cultural competence Cultural Competence is the ability to actively, ethically, respectfully, and successfully engage across and between cultures. In the Australian context, this includes and celebrates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures, knowledge systems, and a mature understanding of contemporary issues.
GQ7	Interdisciplinary effectiveness Interdisciplinary effectiveness is the integration and synthesis of multiple viewpoints and practices, working effectively across disciplinary boundaries.
GQ8	Integrated professional, ethical, and personal identity An integrated professional, ethical and personal identity is understanding the interaction between one’s personal and professional selves in an ethical context.
GQ9	Influence Engaging others in a process, idea or vision.

Outcome map

Learning outcomes	Graduate qualities
Learning outcomes

Responding to student feedback

This section outlines changes made to this unit following staff and student reviews.

The lecture outline has been updated since this unit was last offered.

Additional information

Work, health and safety

We are governed by the Work Health and Safety Act 2011, Work Health and Safety Regulation 2011 and Codes of Practice. Penalties for non-compliance have increased. Everyone has a responsibility for health and safety at work. The University’s Work Health and Safety policy explains the responsibilities and expectations of workers and others, and the procedures for managing WHS risks associated with University activities.

Disclaimer

The University reserves the right to amend units of study or no longer offer certain units, including where there are low enrolment numbers.

To help you understand common terms that we use at the University, we offer an online glossary.

Current students

Overview

Overview

Unit details and rules

Teaching staff

Assessment

Assessment

Assessment summary

Assessment criteria

Use of generative artificial intelligence (AI)

Late submission

Academic integrity

Learning support

Learning support

Simple extensions

Special consideration

Using AI responsibly

Support for students

Weekly schedule

Weekly schedule

Study commitment

Required readings

Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes

Graduate qualities

Outcome map

Responding to student feedback

Responding to student feedback

Additional information

Additional information

Work, health and safety

Disclaimer

On this page

Useful links

PHYS4802: Climate Futures: From Crisis to Resilience

Semester 2, 2025 [Normal day] - Camperdown/Darlington, Sydney

Overview

Overview

Unit details and rules

Teaching staff

Assessment

Assessment

Assessment summary

Assessment criteria

Use of generative artificial intelligence (AI)

Late submission

Academic integrity

Learning support

Learning support

Simple extensions

Special consideration

Using AI responsibly

Support for students

Weekly schedule

Weekly schedule

Study commitment

Required readings

Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes

Graduate qualities

Outcome map

Responding to student feedback

Responding to student feedback

Additional information

Additional information

Work, health and safety

Disclaimer

On this page

Useful links