Macroeconomic Implications of Microeconomic Decisions and Beliefs
This project will investigate the role that heterogeneity in microeconomic decisions and beliefs have on monetary and fiscal policy and on macroeconomic outcomes. It will involve state-of-the-art macroeconomic models that capture the diversity of individual incomes, wealth, productivity, and financing. The project will provide in-depth insights into how economic inequality matters for policy design and its macroeconomic outcomes.
We seek an international PhD candidate who will develop quantitative skills to solve models with heterogeneous agents and estimate macroeconomic models with administrative/survey data. The supervisory team for the project includes Professor James Morley, Professor Mariano Kulish, Associate Professor Aarti Singh, Dr. Chris Gibbs, and Dr. James Graham.
The project will be tied to recent research agendas of the supervisory team. This research can be divided into the following three areas.
First, the team has worked extensively with large datasets documenting individual household and firm behaviours. Chatterjee, Singh, and Stone (2016) decompose the sources of wage inequality between workers over their lifetimes using the HILDA survey from Australia. Chatterjee, Morley, and Singh (2021) use advanced econometric techniques to estimate the extent of household self-insurance against unexpected income shocks using the US PSID survey. Graham and McDowall (2022) use data on millions of households’ transactions at a US commercial bank to study the response of household spending to tax refunds. Graham and Makridis (2023) use the Nielsen Consumer Panel survey to track the response of household spending to changes in local house prices.
Second, the team has relevant research building models of heterogeneous household and firm decision-making and their relationships to the macroeconomy. Singh (2010) studies an economy in which individual households face risks to the return on their human capital investments. Graham and Ozbilgin (2021) study a model of employment responses across household age and industry to COVID-19 lockdowns and government wage subsidy payments. Gamber, Graham, and Yadav (2023) build a model of individual household decisions in the housing market to understand the response of economy-wide housing demand to COVID-19 pandemic shocks. Kulish, Morley, Yamout, and Zanetti (2023) build a model of different sectors and study responses to long-run changes in the terms-of-trade that induce changes in the employment structure of the entire economy.
Finally, the team has also studied the way in which households form beliefs about macroeconomic conditions and how this shapes responses to macroeconomic shocks. Gibbs and Kulish (2017) study the ability of a central bank to bring down inflation when households believe the bank to be less-than-credible and when they must learn from economic data to form beliefs about the future of the macroeconomy. Gibbs and McClung (2023) study the effect of central bank announcements about future policies on the macroeconomy when households learn about the economy from past economic data.
This project will investigate the role that heterogeneity in microeconomic decisions and beliefs have on monetary and fiscal policy and on macroeconomic outcomes. It will involve state-of-the-art macroeconomic models that capture the diversity of individual incomes, wealth, productivity, and financing. The project will provide in-depth insights into how economic inequality matters for policy design and its macroeconomic outcomes.
We seek an international PhD candidate who will develop quantitative skills to solve models with heterogeneous agents and estimate macroeconomic models with administrative/survey data. The supervisory team for the project includes Professor James Morley, Professor Mariano Kulish, Associate Professor Aarti Singh, Dr. Chris Gibbs, and Dr. James Graham.
The project will be tied to recent research agendas of the supervisory team. This research can be divided into the following three areas.
First, the team has worked extensively with large datasets documenting individual household and firm behaviours. Chatterjee, Singh, and Stone (2016) decompose the sources of wage inequality between workers over their lifetimes using the HILDA survey from Australia. Chatterjee, Morley, and Singh (2021) use advanced econometric techniques to estimate the extent of household self-insurance against unexpected income shocks using the US PSID survey. Graham and McDowall (2022) use data on millions of households’ transactions at a US commercial bank to study the response of household spending to tax refunds. Graham and Makridis (2023) use the Nielsen Consumer Panel survey to track the response of household spending to changes in local house prices.
Second, the team has relevant research building models of heterogeneous household and firm decision-making and their relationships to the macroeconomy. Singh (2010) studies an economy in which individual households face risks to the return on their human capital investments. Graham and Ozbilgin (2021) study a model of employment responses across household age and industry to COVID-19 lockdowns and government wage subsidy payments. Gamber, Graham, and Yadav (2023) build a model of individual household decisions in the housing market to understand the response of economy-wide housing demand to COVID-19 pandemic shocks. Kulish, Morley, Yamout, and Zanetti (2023) build a model of different sectors and study responses to long-run changes in the terms-of-trade that induce changes in the employment structure of the entire economy.
Finally, the team has also studied the way in which households form beliefs about macroeconomic conditions and how this shapes responses to macroeconomic shocks. Gibbs and Kulish (2017) study the ability of a central bank to bring down inflation when households believe the bank to be less-than-credible and when they must learn from economic data to form beliefs about the future of the macroeconomy. Gibbs and McClung (2023) study the effect of central bank announcements about future policies on the macroeconomy when households learn about the economy from past economic data.
The team involves members with strong international research standing and extensive experience in PhD supervision, with placements in academia and policy institutions including American University of Beirut, Bank Negara Malaysia, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, University of Melbourne, and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The project will build on the School of Economics' research excellence in "Advancing Inferential Analysis with Economic Data" and "Economic Decision Making and Policy Choices in a Changing World".
Applicants are invited to submit a proposal for PhD research that aligns directly to this project.
Prospective candidates may qualify for direct entry into the PhD program if their research proposal (see above) is accepted and they satisfy at least one of the criteria listed below.
Bachelor's degree with first- or second-class honours in an appropriate area of study that includes a research thesis based on primary data not literature review
Master's degree by research in an appropriate area of study that includes a research thesis that draws on primary data
Master's degree by coursework, with a research thesis or dissertation of 12,000–15,000 words that draws on primary data not literature review, with a grade-point average of at least 80 per cent in the degree.
Demonstrated appropriate professional experience and alternative qualifications in the field of study.
For more information regarding applying for a PhD refer to the course details for Doctor of Philosophy (Arts and Social Sciences).
Please also refer to guidelines for preparing a research proposal.
A number of scholarships are available to support your studies:
- Australian Government RTP Scholarship (International)
- University of Sydney International Scholarship
- University of Sydney Tuition Fee Scholarship
These scholarships will provide a stipend allowance of $37,207 per annum for up to 3.5 years.
For other scholarship opportunities refer to FASS Research Scholarships (International)
For further details about the PhD project contact James Morley james.morley@sydney.edu.au
Please note that these opportunities are open to International students only.