Simulating disease spread through evolution and opinion shifts

A sustained interdisciplinary collaboration between Sydney ID researchers from the Faculty of Engineering and the Faculty of Medicine and Health has led to two new publications that advance pandemic modelling.

As part of Sydney ID’s research theme on Pathogen Emergence and Spread, these studies reflect years of joint research effort, combining expertise in computational modelling, microbiology, and public health.

The first study, published in PLOS Computational Biology, introduces a multi-scale phylodynamic modelling framework that simulates pandemic spread across three interconnected scales: pathogen evolution, human interactions, and public health responses. Validated using global genomic surveillance data, the model captures the punctuated rapid evolution of COVID-19 variants while maintaining computational scalability.

The second study, published in Interface Focus, investigates how opinion dynamics, shaped by individual risk aversion and peer pressure, influence the voluntary adoption of social distancing. Using the recurrent Omicron waves in Australia in 2022 as a case study, the study demonstrates that fluctuating public opinion may explain the multi-wave pandemic patterns. The study is led by early-career researcher Dr Sheryl Chang, recipient of the Sydney ID Seed Grant (2022).

Both studies are supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Project Grant DP220101688. The research team includes Sydney ID members Dr Sheryl Chang, Prof Mikhail Prokopenko (Faculty of Engineering), and Dr Carl Suster, Dr Rebecca Rockett, Prof Vitali Sintchenko, Prof Tania Sorrell (Faculty of Medicine and Health), among others. 

Watch Rebecca Rockett's #WeAreSydneyID researcher video to learn more about her research.