“The study revealed not only that the two cities are becoming increasingly poly-centric, but mortgagees and renters are clustering with their own, which may indicate new socioeconomic divisions based on suburb.”
The study’s lead researcher Dr Emanuele Crosato said: “Our study found that the highest population of renters are in Sydney and Melbourne’s CBDs."
"The areas of Sydney with the highest mortgagor populations – owner occupiers –are around Gosford, Penrith, Parramatta and Campbelltown. In Melbourne, they are around Melton, Epping, Croydon, Dandenong and Frankston.
“The population model has also allowed us to see how, at the suburb level, populations redistribute themselves based on job locations and where the renters and house owners want to live.
“Along Sydney’s arterial routes – high capacity urban roads , rental costs have increased to nearly match those of mortgagors, which may mean that those renting in these areas will find it more difficult to buy in those areas in the future.
“This is an example of how “big data” can be extended with state-of-the-art dynamical models to provide insights into the distribution of renters and homeowners across a large city."
Director of the Centre for Complex Systems, Professor Mikhail Prokopenko said: “Our work is an example of an exciting new field of research called Complex Civil Systems, and could be used to understand our cities in ways that were previously impossible.
“Accurate simulations such as this one allows us to address these and many other points that policymakers are looking to answer in the complex evolution of our cities."
There are no competing interests to declare. The research was funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project, grant no. DP170102927. Sydney Informatics Hub at the University of Sydney provided access to HPC computational resources that have contributed to the research results reported within the paper.