ECMT3160: Semester 1, 2022

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Units ECMT3160 Semester 1 2022 [Normal day]

Unit outline_

ECMT3160: Statistical Modelling

Semester 1, 2022 [Normal day] - Camperdown/Darlington, Sydney

Overview

This unit provides an accessible foundation in the principles of probability and mathematical statistics that underlie econometric methodologies. Its objective is to develop a deeper understanding of econometric methodologies encountered in intermediate units of study. The unit starts with the notion of a simple random experiment and extends it to the notion of datagenerating process for observational data in econometrics. The core topics of this unit include distribution finding techniques, identification in parametric and semiparametric models, estimation theory, and hypothesis testing, Monte Carlo techniques and the bootstrap.

Unit details and rules

Academic unit	Economics
Credit points	6
Prerequisites ?	ECMT2150 or ECMT2950 or ECMT2110 or ECMT2010
Corequisites ?	None
Prohibitions ?	ECMT3620 or ECMT3720 or ECMT3210
Assumed knowledge ?	None
Available to study abroad and exchange students	No

Teaching staff

Coordinator	Rami Tabri, rami.tabri@sydney.edu.au

Type	Description	Weight	Due	Length
Final exam (Open book)	Final exam written take-home examination during formal exam period.	50%	Formal exam period	2 hours
Outcomes assessed:
Assignment	Assignment 1 n/a	10%	Week 06 Due date: 28 Mar 2022 at 15:00 Closing date: 04 Apr 2022	500 words
Outcomes assessed:
In-semester test (Open book)	Mid-semester test Take-home exam	30%	Week 08 Due date: 11 Apr 2022 at 15:00	2 hours
Outcomes assessed:
Assignment	Assignment 2 n/a	10%	Week 12 Due date: 16 May 2022 at 15:00 Closing date: 23 May 2022	500 words
Outcomes assessed:
= Type C final exam ? = Type C in-semester exam ?

Assessment summary

Late take-home exams will not be accepted.

Assessment criteria

The University awards common result grades, set out in the Coursework Policy 2014 (Schedule 1).

As a general guide, a High distinction indicates work of an exceptional standard, a Distinction a very high standard, a credit a good standard, and a pass an acceptable standard.

Result name	Mark range	Description
High distinction	85 - 100
Distinction	75 - 84
Credit	65 - 74
Pass	50 - 64
Fail	0 - 49	When you don’t meet the learning outcomes of the unit to a satisfactory standard.

For more information see guide to grades.

Late submission

In accordance with University policy, these penalties apply when written work is submitted after 11:59pm on the due date:

Deduction of 5% of the maximum mark for each calendar day after the due date.
After ten calendar days late, a mark of zero will be awarded.

Academic integrity

The Current Student website provides information on academic integrity and the resources available to all students. The University expects students and staff to act ethically and honestly and will treat all allegations of academic integrity breaches seriously.

We use similarity detection software to detect potential instances of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breach. If such matches indicate evidence of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breaches, your teacher is required to report your work for further investigation.

Use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and automated writing tools

You may only use generative AI and automated writing tools in assessment tasks if you are permitted to by your unit coordinator. If you do use these tools, you must acknowledge this in your work, either in a footnote or an acknowledgement section. The assessment instructions or unit outline will give guidance of the types of tools that are permitted and how the tools should be used.

Your final submitted work must be your own, original work. You must acknowledge any use of generative AI tools that have been used in the assessment, and any material that forms part of your submission must be appropriately referenced. For guidance on how to acknowledge the use of AI, please refer to the AI in Education Canvas site.

The unapproved use of these tools or unacknowledged use will be considered a breach of the Academic Integrity Policy and penalties may apply.

Studiosity is permitted unless otherwise indicated by the unit coordinator. The use of this service must be acknowledged in your submission as detailed on the Learning Hub’s Canvas page.

Outside assessment tasks, generative AI tools may be used to support your learning. The AI in Education Canvas site contains a number of productive ways that students are using AI to improve their learning.

Learning support

Simple extensions

If you encounter a problem submitting your work on time, you may be able to apply for an extension of five calendar days through a simple extension.  The application process will be different depending on the type of assessment and extensions cannot be granted for some assessment types like exams.

Special consideration

If exceptional circumstances mean you can’t complete an assessment, you need consideration for a longer period of time, or if you have essential commitments which impact your performance in an assessment, you may be eligible for special consideration or special arrangements.

Special consideration applications will not be affected by a simple extension application.

Using AI responsibly

Co-created with students, AI in Education includes lots of helpful examples of how students use generative AI tools to support their learning. It explains how generative AI works, the different tools available and how to use them responsibly and productively.

Weekly schedule

WK	Topic	Learning activity
Week 01	Discussion of course; review of sets and operations, and notion of a function; basic discussion of probability.	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 02	Rules of Probability: notions of an experiment, event, addition rules	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 03	Probability Rules: addition, conditioning, and statistical independence.	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 04	Rules of Probability; Counting and Combinatorics	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 05	Counting and Combinatorics	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 06	Counting and Combinatorics	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 07	Distributions, trials and approximation	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 09	Distributions, trials and approximation	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 10	Random variables and their distributions	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 11	Random Variables and their distributions	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 12	Jointly Distributed Random Variables	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)
Week 13	Jointly Distributed Random Variables	Lecture and tutorial (3 hr)

Attendance and class requirements

Attendance: According to Faculty Board Resolutions, students in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences are expected to attend 90% of their classes. If you attend less than 50% of classes, regardless of the reasons, you may be referred to the Examiner’s Board. The Examiner’s Board will decide whether you should pass or fail the unit of study if your attendance falls below this threshold.
Lecture recording: Most lectures (in recording-equipped venues) will be recorded and may be made available to students on the LMS. However, you should not rely on lecture recording to substitute your classroom learning experience.
Preparation: Students should commit to spend approximately three hours’ preparation time (reading, studying, homework, essays, etc.) for every hour of scheduled instruction.

Study commitment

Typically, there is a minimum expectation of 1.5-2 hours of student effort per week per credit point for units of study offered over a full semester. For a 6 credit point unit, this equates to roughly 120-150 hours of student effort in total.

Required readings

All readings for this unit can be accessed on the Library link available on Canvas.

Required textbook: Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner’s Guide, by David Stirzaker.

Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes are what students know, understand and are able to do on completion of a unit of study. They are aligned with the University's graduate qualities and are assessed as part of the curriculum.

Outcomes
Graduate qualities

At the completion of this unit, you should be able to:

LO1. understand basic ideas and methods of probability
LO2. understand notions of statistical independence and conditioning
LO3. understand counting methods and other combinatorics, and ways of using them.
LO4. understand notions of random variable and probability distribution, and ways of using them.
LO5. understand notions of random vectors and their distributions, weak law of large numbers, and central limit theorem, and their use in statistical approximation.

Graduate qualities

The graduate qualities are the qualities and skills that all University of Sydney graduates must demonstrate on successful completion of an award course. As a future Sydney graduate, the set of qualities have been designed to equip you for the contemporary world.

GQ1	Depth of disciplinary expertise Deep disciplinary expertise is the ability to integrate and rigorously apply knowledge, understanding and skills of a recognised discipline defined by scholarly activity, as well as familiarity with evolving practice of the discipline.
GQ2	Critical thinking and problem solving Critical thinking and problem solving are the questioning of ideas, evidence and assumptions in order to propose and evaluate hypotheses or alternative arguments before formulating a conclusion or a solution to an identified problem.
GQ3	Oral and written communication Effective communication, in both oral and written form, is the clear exchange of meaning in a manner that is appropriate to audience and context.
GQ4	Information and digital literacy Information and digital literacy is the ability to locate, interpret, evaluate, manage, adapt, integrate, create and convey information using appropriate resources, tools and strategies.
GQ5	Inventiveness Generating novel ideas and solutions.
GQ6	Cultural competence Cultural Competence is the ability to actively, ethically, respectfully, and successfully engage across and between cultures. In the Australian context, this includes and celebrates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures, knowledge systems, and a mature understanding of contemporary issues.
GQ7	Interdisciplinary effectiveness Interdisciplinary effectiveness is the integration and synthesis of multiple viewpoints and practices, working effectively across disciplinary boundaries.
GQ8	Integrated professional, ethical, and personal identity An integrated professional, ethical and personal identity is understanding the interaction between one’s personal and professional selves in an ethical context.
GQ9	Influence Engaging others in a process, idea or vision.

Outcome map

Learning outcomes	Graduate qualities
Learning outcomes

Responding to student feedback

This section outlines changes made to this unit following staff and student reviews.

No changes have been made since this unit was last offered.

Disclaimer

The University reserves the right to amend units of study or no longer offer certain units, including where there are low enrolment numbers.

To help you understand common terms that we use at the University, we offer an online glossary.

Current students

Overview

Overview

Unit details and rules

Teaching staff

Assessment

Assessment

Assessment summary

Assessment criteria

Late submission

Academic integrity

Learning support

Learning support

Simple extensions

Special consideration

Using AI responsibly

Weekly schedule

Weekly schedule

Attendance and class requirements

Study commitment

Required readings

Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes

Graduate qualities

Outcome map

Responding to student feedback

Responding to student feedback

Disclaimer

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