Unit of study_

# ITLS6102: Transport Modelling and Forecasting

## Overview

This unit provides a basic understanding of the main principles underlying strategic transport models for forecasting, and the knowledge to critically assess forecasts of transport strategies made by transport planners. Students acquire knowledge of strategic forecasting models used by government and consultants as well as the methods to capture travel behaviour such as mode choice and route choice. Simple mathematical models are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples and applications in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, which are used to illustrate the principles of the methods. This unit equips students to build simple transport models in the computer lab using specialised transport planning software used by governments and consultants.

### Unit details and rules

Unit code ITLS6102 Transport and Logistics Studies 6 TPTM6350 None ITLS5200 or TPTM6495 None No

### Teaching staff

Coordinator Michiel Bliemer, michiel.bliemer@sydney.edu.au Michiel Bliemer Mark Raadsen

## Assessment

Type Description Weight Due Length
Final exam (Record+) Final exam
Exam
40% Formal exam period 2 hours
Outcomes assessed:
Assignment Travel demand modelling
Report on travel demand modelling
30% Week 06
Due date: 02 Oct 2020 at 23:59

Closing date: 12 Oct 2020
3000 words
Outcomes assessed:
Assignment Case study
Bondi case study report
30% Week 12
Due date: 20 Nov 2020 at 23:59

Closing date: 30 Nov 2020
3000 words
Outcomes assessed:
= Type B final exam

### Assessment summary

• Travel demand modelling report: In this assessment, you analyse a hypothetical city in the OmniTRANS software, in which you will make forecasts for travel demand using aggregate transport modelling methods and conduct a simplified cost-benefit analysis. You are asked to write a brief report to the mayor of the city with your findings and recommendations.
• Bondi case study report: You are asked to investigate a possible extension of the train line to Bondi Beach and the impacts on the local community, both in the construction phase as well as the end phase. In groups of two, you will prepare a brief report advising the local community on the advantages and disadvantages, and also provide a critical assessment of your transport model.
• Final exam: This exan consists of both multiple choice and open-ended questions. It will include key concepts in strategic transport planning, knowledge in the theory of aggregate and disaggregate travel demand modelling, theory of private and public transport assignment, as well as advanced transport modelling concepts.

Detailed information for each assessment can be found on Canvas.

### Assessment criteria

The University awards common result grades, set out in the Coursework Policy 2014 (Schedule 1).

As a general guide, a high distinction indicates work of an exceptional standard, a distinction a very high standard, a credit a good standard, and a pass an acceptable standard.

Result name

Mark range

Description

High distinction

85 - 100

Awarded when you demonstrate the learning outcomes for the unit at an exceptional standard, as defined by grade descriptors or exemplars outlined by your faculty or school.

Distinction

75 - 84

Awarded when you demonstrate the learning outcomes for the unit at a very high standard, as defined by grade descriptors or exemplars outlined by your faculty or school.

Credit

65 - 74

Awarded when you demonstrate the learning outcomes for the unit at a good standard, as defined by grade descriptors or exemplars outlined by your faculty or school.

Pass

50 - 64

Awarded when you demonstrate the learning outcomes for the unit at an acceptable standard, as defined by grade descriptors or exemplars outlined by your faculty or school.

Fail

0 - 49

When you don’t meet the learning outcomes of the unit to a satisfactory standard.

### Late submission

In accordance with University policy, these penalties apply when written work is submitted after 11:59pm on the due date:

• Deduction of 5% of the maximum mark for each calendar day after the due date.
• After ten calendar days late, a mark of zero will be awarded.

The Current Student website  provides information on academic integrity and the resources available to all students. The University expects students and staff to act ethically and honestly and will treat all allegations of academic integrity breaches seriously.

We use similarity detection software to detect potential instances of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breach. If such matches indicate evidence of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breaches, your teacher is required to report your work for further investigation.

You may only use artificial intelligence and writing assistance tools in assessment tasks if you are permitted to by your unit coordinator, and if you do use them, you must also acknowledge this in your work, either in a footnote or an acknowledgement section.

Studiosity is permitted for postgraduate units unless otherwise indicated by the unit coordinator. The use of this service must be acknowledged in your submission.

## Learning support

### Simple extensions

If you encounter a problem submitting your work on time, you may be able to apply for an extension of five calendar days through a simple extension.  The application process will be different depending on the type of assessment and extensions cannot be granted for some assessment types like exams.

### Special consideration

If exceptional circumstances mean you can’t complete an assessment, you need consideration for a longer period of time, or if you have essential commitments which impact your performance in an assessment, you may be eligible for special consideration or special arrangements.

Special consideration applications will not be affected by a simple extension application.

### Using AI responsibly

Co-created with students, AI in Education includes lots of helpful examples of how students use generative AI tools to support their learning. It explains how generative AI works, the different tools available and how to use them responsibly and productively.

## Weekly schedule

WK Topic Learning activity Learning outcomes
Week 01 Introduction to transport and network modelling, data, and key concepts Lecture (3 hr)
Week 02 Editing in OmniTRANS Tutorial (3 hr)
Week 03 Aggregate demand modelling Lecture (3 hr)
Week 04 Aggregate demand modelling in OmniTRANS Tutorial (3 hr)
Week 05 Disaggregate demand modelling Lecture (3 hr)
Week 06 Disaggregate demand modelling in Excel Tutorial (3 hr)
Week 07 Private transport route choice and assignment Lecture (3 hr)
Week 08 Private transport route choice and assignment in OmniTRANS Tutorial (3 hr)
Week 09 Public transport route choice and assignment, bicycle assignment, pedestrian assignment Lecture (3 hr)
Week 10 Public transport assignment in OmniTRANS Tutorial (3 hr)
Week 11 Advanced transport models Lecture (3 hr)
Week 12 Bondi case study Tutorial (3 hr)

### Attendance and class requirements

Lecture recordings: All lectures and seminars are recorded and will be available on Canvas for student use. Please note the Business School does not own the system and cannot guarantee that the system will operate or that every class will be recorded. Students should ensure they attend and participate in all classes.

### Study commitment

Typically, there is a minimum expectation of 1.5-2 hours of student effort per week per credit point for units of study offered over a full semester. For a 6 credit point unit, this equates to roughly 120-150 hours of student effort in total.

All readings for this unit can be accessed through the Library eReserve, available on Canvas.

• Ortuzar J de D and Willumsen LG (2011) Modelling Transport, 4th edition.

## Learning outcomes

Learning outcomes are what students know, understand and are able to do on completion of a unit of study. They are aligned with the University's graduate qualities and are assessed as part of the curriculum.

At the completion of this unit, you should be able to:

• LO1. identify and describe the different steps in the strategic transport modelling process
• LO2. assess outcomes of strategic transport models and compare transport planning scenarios
• LO3. model and analyse forecasts of travel behaviour and traffic using aggregate and disaggregate methods
• LO4. communicate (in writing) the most relevant findings for specific target audiences.

The graduate qualities are the qualities and skills that all University of Sydney graduates must demonstrate on successful completion of an award course. As a future Sydney graduate, the set of qualities have been designed to equip you for the contemporary world.

 GQ1 Depth of disciplinary expertise Deep disciplinary expertise is the ability to integrate and rigorously apply knowledge, understanding and skills of a recognised discipline defined by scholarly activity, as well as familiarity with evolving practice of the discipline. GQ2 Critical thinking and problem solving Critical thinking and problem solving are the questioning of ideas, evidence and assumptions in order to propose and evaluate hypotheses or alternative arguments before formulating a conclusion or a solution to an identified problem. GQ3 Oral and written communication Effective communication, in both oral and written form, is the clear exchange of meaning in a manner that is appropriate to audience and context. GQ4 Information and digital literacy Information and digital literacy is the ability to locate, interpret, evaluate, manage, adapt, integrate, create and convey information using appropriate resources, tools and strategies. GQ5 Inventiveness Generating novel ideas and solutions. GQ6 Cultural competence Cultural Competence is the ability to actively, ethically, respectfully, and successfully engage across and between cultures. In the Australian context, this includes and celebrates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures, knowledge systems, and a mature understanding of contemporary issues. GQ7 Interdisciplinary effectiveness Interdisciplinary effectiveness is the integration and synthesis of multiple viewpoints and practices, working effectively across disciplinary boundaries. GQ8 Integrated professional, ethical, and personal identity An integrated professional, ethical and personal identity is understanding the interaction between one’s personal and professional selves in an ethical context. GQ9 Influence Engaging others in a process, idea or vision.

### Outcome map

GQ1 GQ2 GQ3 GQ4 GQ5 GQ6 GQ7 GQ8 GQ9

## Responding to student feedback

This section outlines changes made to this unit following staff and student reviews.

Lectures, tutorials and description of assessment tasks have been improved based on student feedback.